This article contends that markets—from the S&P 500 to Tesla, Bitcoin, and gold—are constructed on structural conventions and driven by collective belief, which can be reshaped through coordinated efforts. The argument unfolds in four key sections: first, it establishes markets as belief systems rather than objective truths; second, it examines price as a quantifiable measure of collective belief expressed through investment behavior; third, it distinguishes between speculative and conviction-based beliefs that motivate such investments; and finally, it explores how new technologies, primarily meme coins, can facilitate the coordination of belief to reshape financial reality. This perspective offers a blueprint for economic systems that reflect shared aspirations rather than inherited norms.
Everything is a Meme: Markets as Belief Systems
Financial markets are not mirrors of economic "truth" driven by supply, demand, and fundamentals. They are belief systems, collective illusions sustained through shared narratives. The structural conventions that underpin them—such as the notion that a dollar holds value—are not immutable laws of nature but arbitrary narratives functioning as necessary illusions that maintain the system's operation. In other words, these conventions are all just memes which are commonly mistaken for truths.
Consider the widely accepted story that owning a stock equates to partial ownership in a company. This narrative is a strategic illusion, a meme that allows markets to function. Unlike direct business ownership, stock ownership confers no meaningful control, authority, or share of revenue. The concept of "partial ownership" is a collectively agreed-upon fiction designed to give the stock market legitimacy.
In reality, stocks are more akin to trading cards, such as a hockey player's card prized by collectors. Just as the card's value bears no direct connection to the player's actual worth, stock certificates are detached from the company's intrinsic value, existing as symbols traded on belief alone. And just like trading cards, stocks are primarily valued because people believe they will be able to sell them at a higher price later.
Price as an Aggregate Measure of Belief
This act of buying and selling assets can be understood as a tangible manifestation of belief. More specifically, each investment decision reflects an investor's belief in an asset's worth, whether rooted in expected future returns or support of the asset's underlying mission or ideology.
Thus, investment itself can be understood as a quantifiable, behavioral expression of belief.
This insight is important because investment behavior serves as a uniquely telling measure of belief. Unlike public statements, which can be skewed by conformity or social pressures, putting money into an asset is a private, deliberate act. Investors rarely commit capital to something they don't believe will hold or gain value, so self-interest ensures a purity of intent.
Notably, this purity surpasses many non-financial indicators of belief; for instance, an investor's purchase of Bitcoin in 2013 reveals more about their belief in its value or decentralized ethos than Catholic Church membership reveals about a person's belief in Catholic theology. A purchase is a quantifiable expression of belief in an asset's value, unclouded by pretense.
Price emerges as the aggregate of these individual beliefs, a numerical reflection of collective sentiment. When a stock trades at $200 or a cryptocurrency reaches a trillion-dollar valuation, that figure encapsulates the combined investment decisions of countless investors, driven by their individual beliefs.
Following this, we can define price: Price: A real-time, quantifiable measure of collective belief, aggregated through private investment behavior—buying or selling assets.
Defining Speculative and Conviction-Based Beliefs
Price, as a measure of collective belief, arises from the aggregate of individual investment decisions. Yet, what motivates these decisions? Two distinct forms of belief drive investment behavior, each with unique implications for market dynamics:
Speculative Belief: An expectation that an asset's price will rise due to future demand, driven by momentum, narratives, and external conditions rather than intrinsic value. It's self-referential and reflexive in that it represents 'belief about future collective belief' or 'predictions about future predictions.' This means investors buy based on their perception of what others will believe and pay later, a cycle with no anchor in the asset's inherent worth. This often leads to bubbles like Tulip Mania. As an unstable force fueled by emotions like fear, greed, and shame, speculative belief amplifies volatility in markets, shifting chaotically as traders and investors try to predict fluctuations in price (i.e., collective belief).
Conviction-Based Belief: A long-term commitment to an asset's purpose or mission, regardless of price swings, rooted in ideological, political, or personal meaning. Investors holding Tesla stock through dips to support its sustainable energy vision, early Bitcoin adopters clinging to coins for a decentralized future, or GameStop buyers rebelling against Wall Street exemplify conviction. This belief provides stability, forming a price floor by encouraging holders to retain assets during unfavorable conditions, even when prices decline.
The interplay of these beliefs shapes market behavior. Speculative belief's lack of foundation makes it volatile—its peaks mark bubble tops when the "collective belief about future collective belief" is highest. Conviction-based belief, grounded in meaning, offers a stabilizing anchor, supporting prices through market downturns.
Together, they form a rudimentary price formula:
Price = Speculative Belief (momentum-driven expectations) + Conviction Belief (purpose-driven commitment).
Understanding these dynamics reveals how collective belief drives markets and opens the door to redefining financial reality through coordinated shifts in belief.
Creating New Financial Realities Through Coordinated Belief
Since markets are collective belief systems, they are not fixed entities but malleable frameworks. If everyone in the world suddenly believes that Bitcoin is a digital store of value, then it becomes true. Likewise, if the market loses faith in a country's currency, it ceases to have value.
This implies that new financial realities can emerge through the coordination of belief. This potential has always existed—humans have long redefined value, as seen in shifts from bartering to coins or gold to fiat currency. But historically, these changes relied on top-down coordination of collective belief. Authorities, including kings, banks, and governments, dictated belief, enforcing narratives such as "money must be state-backed." This top-down imposition compelled societies to adopt systems that often prioritized profit over meaningful values. For instance, modern financial markets tend to incentivize detrimental behaviors like addiction and environmental exploitation over true societal good, leaving society unable to align market value with shared values.
Bitcoin marks a revolutionary shift from this centralized paradigm, demonstrating that people can coordinate belief from the bottom up to create value without traditional authorities. Plutermes calls this process "consensus actualization"—the phenomenon where collective belief transforms abstraction into value. Bitcoin grew from a valueless technological experiment in 2009 to a $1 trillion asset by 2021, driven primarily by conviction in its decentralized vision and later fueled by speculative hopes of price gains. This transformation shows that coordinated belief, particularly conviction-based belief, can reshape financial reality. Plutermes rightly argues that this process can be consciously repeated, pointing to SPX6900 as a new asset embodying a similar uprising against traditional finance.
This realization is profoundly revolutionary, revealing the exciting potential for societies to redefine markets by altering collective belief in ways that truly reflect shared values. By empowering individuals to coordinate belief, a new era of economic creativity and justice becomes possible. Future articles will explore the far-reaching implications of this paradigm shift, examining how humanity might harness this power to build a financial reality that uplifts all.
